What does a ground-up data center actually return?
The Data Center Development Model™ takes a project from power capacity and PUE through the construction budget, lease-up ramp, operating NOI, exit valuation and the levered returns to equity - in one connected workbook.
Size the build. Ramp the load. See the development spread before you commit capital.
The Question
A data center is a power deal wearing a real estate lease.
The economics turn on megawatts, not square feet: how much critical IT load you build, what it costs per kW, how fast tenants absorb it, and what the stabilised income is worth at exit. The model is built around those drivers so the development spread - yield-on-cost versus exit cap - is always in view.
What It Does
Five connected worksheets, one decision.
Every amber input flows through to returns. Change the IT load or the exit cap and the whole chain recalculates.
Control Panel
All investor inputs in one place - capacity, PUE, rent, cost per kW, financing and exit - with headline results at a glance.
Capacity & Lease-Up
Contracted IT load ramps across the absorption period; facility power and annual energy derive from PUE.
Development Budget
Sources & uses on a per-kW basis - land, shell, electrical/mechanical, soft costs, contingency, fee and capitalised interest.
Operating Proforma
Revenue net of vacancy, PUE-driven utilities, maintenance, staffing, tax and G&A to NOI and cash flow, year by year.
Valuation & Returns
Direct-cap exit, unlevered and levered cash flows, IRR, equity multiple, yield-on-cost and development spread.
Fully Transparent
No macros, no black boxes - every cell is a live formula you can trace from input to return.
How It Resolves
From megawatts to the money.
Illustrative Base Case
A 40 MW Tier III build, underwritten end to end.
Sample assumptions shipped with the workbook - 40 MW critical load, 1.30 PUE, $165 / kW / month, a three-year lease-up and a 7.5% exit cap. All figures below are produced by the model's own formulas.
| Operating Pro Forma ($) | Year 3 | Year 5 | Year 8 (Stab.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leased utilisation | 31.7% | 95.0% | 95.0% |
| Effective Gross Revenue | 24,076,800 | 76,629,231 | 83,734,830 |
| Total Operating Expenses | (20,601,872) | (46,596,003) | (49,910,199) |
| Net Operating Income | 3,474,928 | 30,033,228 | 33,824,631 |
| CapEx Reserve | (481,536) | (1,532,585) | (1,674,697) |
| Cash Flow from Operations | 2,993,392 | 28,500,644 | 32,149,935 |
Who It's For
Built for capital decisions in digital infrastructure.
Run It Live
Open the engine and run your own numbers.
An interactive, in-browser engine - not a spreadsheet. Adjust capacity, rent, cost per kW, lease-up and financing and every result recalculates instantly. Sign in to save projects and pick up where you left off.
- Workspace with all inputs in one place
- Power capacity & lease-up ramp
- Sources & uses development budget
- Annual operating pro forma to NOI
- Exit valuation & levered return metrics
Get Started
Underwrite the next megawatt with clarity.
Whether you are sizing a ground-up campus, testing a lease-up assumption or pricing an exit, the Data Center Development Model turns capacity and cost into a decision you can act on.